Xavier Depouilly, general manager DXL Research & Consulting

The key question shall no longer be how fast Vietnam can grow, but how well that growth can be sustained and shared across businesses, sectors, and the population.

Business sentiment provides an early indication of economic direction. The Business Confidence Index (BCI), conducted by DXL Research for the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam, reached 80 points in Q4/2025, returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Around 65 per cent of companies described their current business situation as “good” or “very good”, while 69 per cent expressed a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026.

Confidence is especially strong among larger companies. Firms with more than 500 employees report even higher optimism, which is significant as these businesses typically invest with a long-term horizon. Their activity supports local suppliers, service providers, and employment, helping strengthen the broader domestic market, including small and medium-sized enterprises.

Meanwhile, tourism was a major contributor to Vietnam’s economic momentum in 2025. Official figures show that more than 21 million international visitors arrived last year, the highest number ever recorded. This recovery supported growth across multiple sectors, including retail, transport, hospitality, and entertainment.

Beyond the main urban centres, tourism has also driven growth in central Vietnam, particularly in Danang and nearby provinces. At the same time, rising incomes are encouraging Vietnamese households to spend more on travel, leisure, and services. This shift towards experience-based consumption is expected to continue in 2026, helping balance the economy and support local businesses.

For many companies, the focus has clearly moved beyond recovery from the pandemic era. BCI survey results show that half of businesses now prioritise business development and diversification, rather than cost reduction. This signals a healthier phase of growth, as firms actively seek new customers, products, and opportunities within Vietnam and in the region.

As we look towards 2026, the roadmap is clear. The World Bank projects growth to moderate slightly to a sustainable 6.3 per cent before accelerating again in 2027, allowing the economy to digest recent gains and focus on efficiency. This growth rate remains strong by international standards and reflects a more stable and sustainable pace.

Elsewhere, technology adoption is becoming increasingly visible across the economy. Around 40 per cent of businesses plan to expand their use of digital tools, automation, or AI. This trend is not limited to large corporations. DXL’s latest consumer research, conducted in December among 900 respondents across four major cities, shows that nearly one in five urban residents already use AI-based tools regularly, mainly for work productivity and information search.

Over time, higher productivity supports wage growth and more sophisticated consumer demand. This creates opportunities not only for technology firms, but also for retailers, service providers, and local brands that can adapt to digital expectations.

Despite these positive signs, 2026 will not be without risks. Vietnam remains exposed to global shocks, including changes in trade patterns and geopolitical tensions. Climate-related risks and supply chain disruptions also remain relevant, as experienced in recent years.

At the same time, internal reforms and administrative adjustments continue to reshape the business environment. These changes are necessary, but they require companies to stay informed and adaptable. Ensuring that growth benefits small businesses, workers, and households will be an important part of building sustainable, inclusive growth.

Vietnam’s outlook for 2026 is encouraging. The foundations for growth are strong, supported by confident businesses, recovering tourism, and evolving domestic demand. The next phase will depend on adaptability, inclusion, and the capacity to manage new external shocks.

For investors and companies, the opportunity is no longer only about producing and exporting from Vietnam, but about growing together with a domestic market that is becoming more digital, more sophisticated, and more demanding.

Csaba Bundik, CEO, CETA Consulting

Crucially, Vietnam’s approach does not seek to compete directly with established global technology leaders in frontier research or advanced chip design. Instead, policymakers and investors recognise that the country’s comparative advantage lies in selective positioning within the AI and semiconductor value chains. In these segments, operational execution, manufacturing discipline, and scalability tend to matter more than being at the technological frontier.

This positioning builds on Vietnam’s existing strengths. The country already benefits from a well-established industrial base in electronics manufacturing and high-tech foreign funding. Global firms have developed large-scale production platforms in Vietnam, creating a dense ecosystem of suppliers, skilled labour, and logistics infrastructure. These capabilities provide a practical foundation for semiconductor-related activities such as assembly, testing, packaging, and advanced electronics manufacturing.

Human capital further reinforces this foundation. Vietnam has steadily expanded its pool of engineers and technology graduates, enabling the development of applied AI solutions, industrial automation, and embedded systems. These technologies are closely aligned with the needs of the real economy, delivering productivity gains across manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, energy management, and public services.

However, the limited availability of senior developers and systems architects with experience in complex, state-of-the-art solutions at scale remains a constraint that will need to be addressed to sustain momentum.

Investor interest is also shaped by Vietnam’s wider external positioning. Political stability, deep integration within ASEAN, and an extensive network of free trade agreements reduce geopolitical and trade-related risks at a time of global supply chain reconfiguration. Reinforced by Vietnam’s “bamboo diplomacy”, these factors support its role as a reliable and politically neutral base for technology manufacturing and deployment. For European backers in particular, this risk profile increasingly supports long-term engagement rather than purely cost-driven decisions.

Such long-term commitments place a premium on policy stability. For deep-tech and semiconductor projects, regulatory predictability consistently outweighs short-term fiscal incentives. Large-scale AI infrastructure and semiconductor investments involve high capital intensity and extended payback periods, making them especially sensitive to regulatory risk.

Vietnam can reinforce confidence by establishing clear and transparent pathways for nationally important technology projects, including streamlined licensing, predictable land-use arrangements, and more effective coordination between central and local authorities.

Within this policy environment, targeted incentives tend to deliver stronger results than broad-based support schemes. Priority areas include semiconductor packaging, testing, and supporting industries; AI computing infrastructure and data centres; and industrial and applied AI solutions aligned with Vietnam’s manufacturing and services base. These segments offer the greatest potential for scale, technology spillovers, and productivity gains while remaining consistent with existing capabilities.

As investment scales up, infrastructure constraints become more visible. Energy reliability has emerged as a decisive factor in technology funding decisions. AI infrastructure and data centres are highly energy-intensive and sensitive to power disruptions, making grid stability, energy availability, and renewable integration strategic enablers of Vietnam’s technology ambitions. Investors increasingly view energy policy as an integral component of the AI and semiconductor funding environment, rather than a separate consideration.

Regulatory credibility also extends beyond energy and investment licensing. Closer alignment with international standards on intellectual property protection, data governance, and AI ethics would further strengthen Vietnam’s standing with global technology corporations. European companies, in particular, operate under strict compliance frameworks and require confidence that intellectual property rights and data security will be enforced in practice. Strengthening implementation capacity, rather than relying solely on formal legal provisions, remains a key priority.

Financing represents another structural constraint. AI infrastructure, data centres, and semiconductor-related projects typically require substantial upfront investment and long payback periods that cannot be fully met through traditional bank lending alone. Vietnam has scope to combine state leadership, market mechanisms, and international capital into a balanced model suited to deep-tech development.

A practical financing framework could include long-term institutional capital and project finance for AI infrastructure and data centres; growth equity and venture capital to scale AI-enabled industrial technologies; and public–private co-funding mechanisms to reduce early-stage risk and crowd in private capital. Targeted tax incentives for technology companies, venture capital funds, and angel investors can further support ecosystem development. The central objective is to mobilise patient capital that supports long-term capability building rather than short-term returns.

Experience from Europe highlights the importance of ecosystem design. Successful innovation systems connect research, scale-up, manufacturing, and market access rather than treating them as isolated stages. Mission-driven innovation drives help align public funding with clear national and industrial priorities, ensuring that technological development addresses concrete economic needs.

Vietnam can accelerate the development of its AI and semiconductor ecosystem by strengthening university–industry collaboration, promoting cross-border research and development partnerships that facilitate knowledge transfer, and developing technology clusters linked to existing manufacturing and logistics strengths. Encouraging technology owners to establish regional or Asian headquarters in Vietnam would further enhance technology diffusion and managerial spillovers.

International cooperation should extend beyond technology transfer to include human capital development, institutional learning, and long-term competitiveness. Fast-track immigration and work permit procedures for highly skilled technology professionals and venture capital experts, alongside stronger enforcement of intellectual property protection, would help sustain confidence.

Azmi Bin Wan Hussin Wan, chief operations officer CT Semiconductor

However, for global semiconductor corporations, interest or policy declarations alone are insufficient. Capital flows are only truly activated when concrete, verifiable, and operationally effective trigger conditions are met.

Global semiconductor investors do not make decisions based on potential or paper-based strategies. They invest in countries where operational conditions have been demonstrably proven.

The first decisive criterion is industrial infrastructure reliability. Semiconductor manufacturing requires uninterrupted power supply, ultra-pure water, stable operating environments, full ecosystem for supply chain, and logistics systems capable of withstanding disruptions.

Investors assess not only installed capacity, but also redundancy and continuity of operations. Without proven industrial-grade reliability at this level, Vietnam is unlikely to become a priority destination.

The second criterion is long-term policy predictability and credibility. Semiconductor investments typically have very long lifecycles. As such, confidence in the stability, transparency, and consistency of legal frameworks, government policy including tax, import/export, land-use rights, and investment procedures is more critical than the level of incentives offered.

From my perspective, domestic enterprises play an anchoring role in building market confidence. By committing long-term capital and aligning closely with national priorities, such as Vietnam’s semiconductor industry development strategy to 2030, Vietnam’s direction is structural rather than short-term.

The third criterion is scalable human capital. Beyond highly skilled engineers, the semiconductor industry requires large numbers of process engineers, technicians, and skilled operators. Vietnam’s competitiveness will depend on its ability to rapidly scale this workforce in both quantity and quality.

Compared with Malaysia, Indonesia, and India, CT Semiconductor identifies Vietnam’s greatest weakness as its limited participation in the semiconductor value chain, particularly in advanced manufacturing and outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT).

Malaysia has built a mature OSAT ecosystem over several decades, supported by dense supplier and service networks. India, while still developing, has mobilised substantial state resources under a clear national strategy. Vietnam, despite its strong electronics manufacturing base, lacks hands-on experience in large-scale semiconductor production operations.

However, human capital and supporting services are areas where Vietnam can improve most rapidly if approached correctly. The key lies in sustained collaboration among three pillars: government, academia, and industry, where training must be closely linked to practice and real production environments.

In this context, CT Semiconductor has implemented a programme on assembly, testing, and packaging (ATP) at the National Innovation Centre in Hanoi. Delivered by international experts with over 30 years of industry experience and fully funded by the company, the programme attracted 180 lecturers from more than 50 universities and colleges nationwide, forming the core teaching force for Vietnam’s future semiconductor engineers.

Vietnam should adopt a phased development strategy, rather than attempting to cover the entire ecosystem from the outset. ATP should be the initial priority: this segment requires significantly lower capital investment than wafer fabrication, offers faster deployment timelines, and aligns well with Vietnam’s existing electronics manufacturing base. ATP facilities also generate immediate demand for materials, chemicals, equipment maintenance, and logistics, catalysing the formation of a supporting ecosystem.

Chip design capabilities can be developed in parallel, particularly in areas such as power electronics, automotive chips, and AI applications. However, design alone is insufficient to anchor supply chains. Physical manufacturing assets, especially ATP plants, create long-term commitments and stronger economic spillover effects.

On the next move, Vietnam can gradually expand into materials, equipment services, and eventually wafer fabrication as conditions mature. Based on this trajectory, we are working towards building a fully integrated semiconductor ecosystem, mastering the entire process from research and training to design, lithography, assembly, testing, and advanced packaging.

We believe several non-financial factors will become increasingly decisive in the coming years. Foremost among them is policy consistency and institutional coordination between central and local authorities, particularly in taxation, customs, and administrative procedures.

Intellectual property protection is another critical factor, especially as advanced packaging technologies and design intellectual property continue to rise in value.

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) compliance has also become a strategic requirement. We are committed to fully complying with international ESG standards to meet the growing expectations of global partners.

Finally, connectivity with the global ecosystem, through trade agreements, mobility of international experts, data governance frameworks, and alignment with global technology standards, will strongly influence decisions.

We identify three key criteria to activate a new wave of semiconductor investment into Vietnam during the next five years: a long-term national semiconductor strategy with binding commitments; development of ready-to-operate semiconductor industrial zones, with guaranteed infrastructure and streamlined licensing procedures; and large-scale development of technical human capital, focusing on application-oriented engineers trained in collaboration with industry.

If Vietnam can translate these criteria into tangible capabilities rather than policy aspirations, the country will not only draw in funding, but progressively position itself as a strategic node in the global semiconductor supply chain, anchored by pioneering enterprises already turning these conditions into reality.

Why has resilience become such a crucial benchmark for businesses today?

Businesses around the world are operating in a very different environment than even a few years ago. We’re facing global uncertainties, supply chain disruptions, rising energy demands, and more frequent climate related challenges.

Dr. Pham Thai Lai

Here in Vietnam, 2025 was a stark reminder of this reality, with the country experiencing a series of severe natural disasters, from prolonged heatwaves and record–breaking storms to widespread flooding that disrupted industries, logistics networks, and daily life. These events made it clear that external shocks are no longer rare; they are becoming part of the operating landscape.

Efficiency still matters – it always will – but efficiency alone is no longer enough. Companies now need resilience, meaning the ability to anticipate disruption, withstand shocks, and recover quickly while keeping operations stable. What is especially important is that resilience and decarbonisation are no longer opposing forces – they actually reinforce one another.

If you think about it, a system that is cleaner, more flexible, and more distributed is also less vulnerable to single point failures. Decarbonised systems tend to be electrified, decentralised, and digitally enabled. Those are precisely the characteristics of resilient infrastructure.

The common foundation that enables both resilience and sustainability is digitalisation. Digital technologies give us transparency, speed, and precision. They allow systems to sense conditions in real time, respond dynamically, and adapt proactively. Without digitalisation, neither resilience nor decarbonisation can advance at the speed the world requires.

Electrification plays a major role in decarbonisation. What challenges does it create for current infrastructure?

Electrification is the most widely accepted and practical pathway towards a net zero future. It is proven, scalable, and applicable across sectors – from manufacturing and transportation to buildings and logistics. In our global Infrastructure Transition Monitor, 64 per cent of leaders agreed that electrification is the most realistic route to net-zero.

But electrification also adds complexity. When companies adopt electric vehicles, electrified machinery, heat pumps, or rooftop solar, they introduce new loads and variable two way power flows. The grid must handle unpredictable peaks, integrate distributed energy sources, and stay stable even as usage patterns shift quickly.

Many grids, globally and across ASEAN, were not built for this level of variability. That is why infrastructure is often cited as the biggest barrier to meeting sustainability targets. The challenge is not ambition; it’s system readiness.

To move forward, we must make infrastructure smarter, not just bigger. Digital grid software, smart transformers, intelligent switching devices, and automated controls give operators real time visibility and better control. These tools help balance loads, reroute power, prevent congestion, and integrate renewables more efficiently. This is how we build a grid that is both electrified and resilient.

Where does digitalisation, and especially AI, fit into building resilient energy systems?

Digitalisation is the engine of resilience. It turns rigid, analogue systems into intelligent networks that can sense, predict, and respond instantly. But it only works when organisations have access to the right data. Many still struggle with data gaps, siloed systems, or limited analytical capabilities, making decarbonisation harder.

This is where AI makes a real difference. Two thirds of leaders in our research believe AI will transform infrastructure operations, and we already see it happening. AI can forecast demand spikes, detect anomalies, and warn operators about potential failures long before they escalate. In regions facing extreme weather or rapid growth, these capabilities can prevent outages and strengthen system stability.

To support this shift, Siemens developed the Industrial Copilot, a generative AI assistant for the entire industrial value chain. It helps generate automation code, assists with troubleshooting, speeds up maintenance planning, and simplifies knowledge transfer. Work that once took days can now be completed in minutes, reducing effort and error rates.

By combining AI with real time operational data, companies move from reactive management to proactive optimisation. This dramatically boosts resilience because systems can adjust automatically and intelligently – even before human intervention is needed.

Siemens recently announced an expanded AI partnership. What does this mean in practical terms for customers and resilience?

Our expanded partnership with Nvidia is about bringing AI into every stage of the industrial value chain. Together, we’re building an Industrial AI operating system to help companies innovate faster, optimise continuously, and operate more resiliently.

Practically, this means three things. First, we are delivering AI accelerated tools – from electronic design to simulation and adaptive manufacturing – allowing faster, more accurate engineering and real time optimisation.

Second, we are enabling an “AI Brain” for factories. By combining Siemens automation and operations software with Nvidia’s AI and simulation platforms, factories can analyse digital twins continuously and convert insights into action on the shop floor. The Siemens Electronics Factory in Erlangen will be the first blueprint, and companies like Foxconn and PepsiCo are already evaluating these capabilities.

Third, we are accelerating GPU powered engineering and AI physics models. This allows autonomous digital twins and 2-10× faster design workflows, improving both reliability and speed.

For customers, the benefits are clear: faster design cycles, shorter commissioning, more reliable operations, and stronger resilience through AI driven prediction and autonomy.

What does all this mean for Vietnam, and what must the country focus on in the coming decade?

Vietnam stands at an important turning point. Its economy is expanding rapidly, its manufacturing base is growing, and its energy demand continues to rise. At the same time, the country remains one of the most climate exposed in Asia, which makes the need for resilient infrastructure more urgent than ever.

Digitalisation gives Vietnam a tremendous advantage. Instead of following a linear development path, Vietnam can leapfrog older models and adopt modern technologies from the outset. Smart grids, AI enabled platforms, digital twins, and AI-driven engineering tools – like Industrial Copilot – allow us to plan more precisely, operate more efficiently, and adapt to change more effectively.

With strong renewable energy potential and a clear national commitment to sustainability, Vietnam is well positioned to become a regional leader in smart infrastructure. But to achieve this, resilience must become the new benchmark – not just a target, but a guiding principle for how we design, build, and operate our energy and industrial systems. If we embrace that mindset, Vietnam can secure a cleaner, stronger, and more stable future for decades to come.

As global conditions continue to shift, resilience is the new benchmark for smart infrastructure. Electrification, digitalisation, and AI are reshaping how systems are designed, operated, and future proofed. For businesses across ASEAN and for nations like Vietnam, those who prioritise resilience today will be best positioned to grow sustainably, adapt quickly, and thrive in an increasingly dynamic world.

Vietnam’s business aviation market has grown quickly over the past decade. What are the main drivers behind this growth, and how mature is the market today?

Paul Desgrosseilliers

If business aviation is defined strictly, Vietnam’s market is actually very young. Meaningful growth has really only started in the last 3-4 years. Before the pandemic period, there were effectively no business jets based in Vietnam. Coming out of the pandemic, companies and individuals began operating their own aircraft, initially through charter and later through managed ownership.

Today, the market stands at just under a dozen business jets, around 10-12 aircraft, with at least 3-4 more expected to enter service this year. From a numerical standpoint, the base is still small, but the growth rate is very high.

Vietnam’s economy is growing rapidly across manufacturing, real estate, industrial development and services. Frequent visits to both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City make this growth very visible, from large-scale construction to expanding industrial zones. As wealth increases among corporations and individuals, international business activity grows as well.

Vietnamese companies are no longer operating within domestic or regional markets. Many are deeply integrated into global supply chains, with frequent travel to China, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe and North America. Business aviation supports this international reach by providing flexibility, efficiency and access to destinations that are not well served by commercial airlines.

In more mature markets such as North America, around 90 per cent of business jet utilisation is business-related rather than leisure-driven. Vietnam is following a similar pattern.

ExecuJet has obtained certification in Vietnam and now provides local maintenance support. What services are currently offered?

Vietnam has a unique regulatory environment compared with many other Southeast Asian markets. All aircraft owned and operated in Vietnam must be registered locally. Foreign-registered aircraft are not permitted to operate domestically. As a result, maintenance providers must hold Vietnamese regulatory approval in order to support these aircraft.

Recognising this requirement, ExecuJet began working with Vietnamese authorities more than a year ago to obtain the necessary approvals. The certification process was completed around six months ago, allowing the company to provide maintenance services for Vietnamese-registered business jets.

Vietnam was among the first Southeast Asian markets ExecuJet entered. Why was Vietnam prioritised?

Several factors influenced the decision. Firstly, the expansion began with an existing customer relationship. Initial interest came directly from Vietnamese operators seeking maintenance support.

Secondly, the aircraft types operating in Vietnam align closely with ExecuJet’s existing capabilities. The company already serves as an authorised service centre for Gulfstream and Dassault aircraft, which dominate the Vietnamese fleet.

Thirdly, geographic proximity played an important role. Hanoi, for example, is only around three hours by air from Beijing. From a customer perspective, flying to China for maintenance does not significantly increase travel time compared with other regional options.

Business aviation growth has been uneven across Southeast Asia. How does Vietnam compare with other regional markets?

Vietnam’s market remains smaller than more mature regional peers, but its growth trajectory is strong. Singapore, for example, had only a handful of business jets 15 years ago. Today, the fleet exceeds 80 aircraft. Indonesia operates around 60 business jets, while Thailand has approximately 45.

Vietnam’s fleet of around 12 aircraft represents a significant jump from zero just a few years ago. Importantly, multiple additional deliveries are already planned, indicating confidence in long-term growth.

Each market has its own characteristics. Aircraft preferences differ based on geography, business needs and infrastructure. Some markets favour smaller aircraft, while others gravitate toward large-cabin jets. Despite these differences, the underlying trend across Southeast Asia is consistent: economic growth is driving increased demand for business aviation.

ExecuJet Haite is based in China. What challenges arise when supporting Vietnam from abroad, and how are they addressed?

In the long term, there is strong interest in developing infrastructure within Vietnam, including business jet maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) and fixed-base operator (FBO) facilities.

However, the current fleet size does not yet justify major investment. Typically, a base of 30-40 aircraft is needed to support standalone infrastructure economically.

Vietnam’s airport development plans may change this equation. Several new airports are under construction or planned, and business aviation zones are expected to be incorporated. FBOs are likely to be established first, with MRO facilities following as the fleet expands. When the infrastructure matures, opportunities for deeper local engagement will emerge. Until then, proximity to China allows efficient cross-border support without compromising service quality.